If we’re going to talk about this year’s Oscars, we have to spend at least a moment on the Egregious Snubs Discourse. Certainly, everyone else has.

As soon as the nominations were announced, I could see it coming and knew I wanted no part of it. This is not to say that anyone’s reaction in the moment was wrong; but the backlash (and the backlash to the backlash) were so predictable that I felt there was nothing I could add of any real value.

I mean, what can you say? You have a movie that is both deeply silly and genuinely touching, written and directed by an indie darling with an unimpeachable track record, art directed within an inch of its life to create a completely believable but also totally alien world, and yet, somehow, the director doesn’t get recognized. The star of a sterling ensemble doesn’t get nominated, either. There’s a pity nom in a smaller category, but that hardly seems enough.

There’s just no way around it: Asteroid City got screwed.

But such is life…and certainly such is the Oscars. Every year, worthy creatives get left out in categories where they deserve to be nominated. Wonderful movies go unrecognized (or at least underrecognized).

In a year that featured new films by Academy favorites and icons like Scorsese, Soderbergh, Michael Mann, Ridley Scott, and Chris Nolan, as well as great work by formidable filmmakers and multi-hyphenates like Greta Gerwig, Ben Affleck, and Bradley Cooper—to say nothing of the international releases and amazing efforts by lesser known directors—it was obvious there weren’t going to be enough chairs to go around.

Sometimes a movie you really love—and paid to see in theaters multiple times—doesn’t get nominated. Or it does, but doesn’t win. That doesn’t mean the movie wasn’t awesome or that you are wrong to love it. Fortunately, it also usually has little-to-no bearing on how that movie endures over time.

It just means it didn’t win a particular, silly, made-up award. Life if short, and it’s not worth getting that upset about.

(Says the guy who still grouses over L.A. Confidential losing the Best Picture Oscar to Titanic more than a quarter-century ago…)

Anyway, as is my tradition when these particular, silly, made-up awards come around, I wanted to go on record with my predictions for who should win, and — where necessary — who I think should win. I promise not to make Asteroid City the answer to that in every category…even though it could be.

I’m officially too old (read: too lazy) to copy/paste/format/hyperlink all the nominees. Someone else has already done that work. They’ll also read all the names during the telecast if you’re really that interested.

Best Picture

Will win: Oppenheimer

Should win: Oppenheimer

Really strong field this year, but Oppenheimer has had this pretty much sewn up since opening weekend. This is Thanos-level inevitable.

Best Director

Will win: Christopher Nolan

Should win: Christopher Nolan

It’s time. And it’s happening.