You didn’t really think I was gonna sit this one out, did you?
I have to say, it’s been nice to follow an Oscars season full of movies I actually like. The last few years, Sara and I have done a weekend-long binge of top contenders. This year we didn’t have to, because I’d already seen most of the big nominees. BY CHOICE. BEFORE they were nominated.
I haven’t seen all the Best Picture nominees—I almost never do, even with the binges—but for the first time in recent memory, there aren’t any that I don’t want to see. Not a single one of them feels like obligation homework. That’s a nice change of pace.
I’ll be interested to see if the inclusion of some big-grossing blockbusters does anything to goose this year’s ratings; I’m guessing it won’t, at least not to the degree the Academy bosses probably hope. But that doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea. The Oscars aren’t the ratings “event” they were when I started doing the Mr. Hollywood thing. Nothing is, except maybe the Super Bowl.
But generally speaking, if you want people to care about your movie awards show, you have to award (or at least nominate) movies a lot of people saw.
Thanks for coming to my TED talk. Let’s get to the nominees.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
I have money on: Tár (+3300), The Fabelmans (+1400). These are credible contenders with huge upside. Worth a few bucks each as a flyer.
Best Director
Will win: The Daniels
Should win: Spielberg
I have money on: Spielberg (+125). I think it’s the Daniels, but I’m not sure. If I have to miss on my official pick, I want to at least win money by being wrong.
Best Lead Actor
Will win: Brendan Fraser
Should win: Colin Farrell
I have money on: Colin Farrell (+250), Austin Butler (+200). At separate points, these guys were both viewed as “the frontrunner,” but you could still get plus odds. I suspect the Brendan Fraser and the Obvious Oscar Bait Transformation pulls it out, through.
Best Lead Actress
Will win: Not sure…it’s been neck and neck the whole way. Yeoh has the momentum, but a Blanchett win would not surprise me at all.
Should win: Can’t say. Tár is one I haven’t seen yet (yeah, yeah, I know). Michelle Yeoh was pretty fucking great, though.
I have money on: Michelle Yeoh (+185)
I suppose now would be the time to talk about the Andrea Riseborough “controversy,” which was utterly fucking ridiculous. The righteous indignation over a performance from a little-seen movie getting nominated solely on the basis of a smart FYC campaign and some buzzy intervention from some SAG card-toting “cool kids” was hilarious. Like, have never heard of the Oscars before? Is this literally your first day in Hollywood?
Sure, in kayfabe the Oscars are a pure meritocracy where winners are selected solely because of the quality of their work. The reality—which isn’t a secret, even in the hinterlands—is that studios and talent reps spend obscene amounts of money campaigning for nominations and trophies. There’s a whole cottage industry of consultants and strategists who exist exclusively to work the system, and that’s fine. But when someone comes along and finds a new way to win, it’s ridiculous for anyone to get up in arms about it. Especially when, come next year, I promise half the would-be contenders are running the Team Riseborough playbook themselves.
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Ke Huy Quan
Should win: Ke Huy Quan
I have money on: Nothing. This is a lock, the odds reflect that, and I’m not a fan of putting up dollars to win pennies.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Angela Bassett (does the thing)
Should win: There’s a legitimate case to be made for any one of these women.
I have money on: Ha! No chance… This is normally one of the weakest categories, but this year it’s an absolute murderer’s row. I’m happy to just sit back and enjoy the spectacle.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Women Talking
Should win: Probably Women Talking, although Top Gun: Maverick was some real, Syd Field textbook shit.
I have money on: Top Gun: Maverick (+1200). Small bet, big upside. Plus, a lot of people read Syd Field.
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Tár (it’s gotta win something)
Should win: The Fablemans
Best Film Editing
Will win: When they say “Best” in this category, they usually mean “Most.” That means it’s Elvis or Everything Everywhere All At Once
Should win: Everything Everywhere…
I have money on: Elvis (+1600)
Best Original Song
Will win: “Naatu Naatu”
Should win: “Naatu Naatu”. Not even a contest.
I have money on: Nothing. Could never find plus odds on “Naatu Naatu.”
Speed Round
Haven’t seen a lot of these, haven’t bet on any. Literally throwing darts with most of these picks:
Best Cinematography: Tár, Florian Hoffmeister
Best Documentary Feature: Navalny
Best Documentary Short: The Elephant Whisperers
Best International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front
(Whoever made the decision not to submit RRR as India’s entry here should be driven out of show business altogether…this was even dumber than the Encanto team not running “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” for Original Song so they could go with an immediately-forgettable ballad instead. Stupid.)
Best Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Animated Short: My Year of Dicks (Beavis voice: Hnh…dicks)
Best Costume Design: Elvis
Best Live Action Short: An Irish Goodbye
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Whale
Best Original Score: The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell
Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Production Design: Elvis
Best Visual Effects: Top Gun: Maverick
One last thing…
This year marks two very important (to me) Oscar anniversaries.
It’s now been a quarter century since Titanic beat L.A. Confidential (and Good Will Hunting, while we’re at it) for Best Picture. If not the greatest Oscar travesty of all time, it’s in the top three. Such bullshit. I’m still not over it, and at this point I don’t know that I ever will be.
It’s also the 25th anniversary of the first Mr. Hollywood Oscar Party (which ended with me cutting the audio on Cameron’s acceptance speech in a fit of pique. Good times!). There’s no reason this silly radio bit should still be a thing people remember, but for whatever reason it is. Thanks to Mark Shaw for giving me a place to develop the bit; Marty Posch, Diane Daily, Dave Trapp, and the late Bob Risher for being panelists; and all the many folks who showed up at Kilroy’s/Sports to take part over the years (especially Sarah Booher, who is still pushing for parties to this day). You guys are the greatest…see you all next year.
Jeff Dellinger 